Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Final Week

State Level: Even more competitive states in the picture now. GA, IN, maybe even AZ. I would consider all 3 of those long shots at this point but it really wouldn't surprise me to see at least one go blue. The Obama campaign seems to be focusing on NC & VA right now after recently completing a final trip out west to sure up CO & NM. NV I think is still a very competitive race. This is another state that simply doesn't fall into line behind a more national political trend.

McCain continues to focus on PA, IA , FL & OH. No indication of movement in PA or IA. The race remains more or less tied in OH & FL and those are must-wins for McCain. Given the closeness of the race I do think it's possible McCain could still win both FL & OH -- in which case he would probably win NC, GA, IN, etc. (if undecideds or leaners break back towards McCain)

The difficultly for McCain, even if he wins OH & FL, is losing VA's 15EV. It would be absolutely crucial for him to fight back in VA or PA this week to win the election. Alternatively he could focus on winning WI, MO, NH & NV but that's a tough logistical battle to fight this late in the game. There just isn't enough time to be moving chess pieces all over the map.

National: Nothing new at all. McCain's attacks have been ineffective in terms of national polling. Probably too late in the game to stage another strong attack. He would need one huge, opinion changing event, to have a chance now. Too many states, not enough time for him.

Election Night: The results from VA & NC should give us a pretty good idea how this thing is going early in the night. By 10PM it will be pretty clear who won the election. If I had to predict I'd say Obama get to 270 before midnight.

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